Crystal Ball looks at Forbes, Rigell districts

Larry Sabato's Crystal BallBy Lynn R. Mitchell

The latest from Sabato’s Crystal Ball has lots of goodies for political junkies, as usual, but of particular interest this morning was that Virginia is on managing editor Kyle Kondik’s radar (see House 2016: Republicans start with a commanding edge):

If Democrats really want to put the House in play, they will need to win many of these Likely Republican seats.

Also notable on this list is Rep. Randy Forbes (R, VA-4), whose district might become much more Democratic thanks to an October court order to redraw the neighboring, majority-black district of Rep. Bobby Scott (D, VA-3). A redraw of Scott’s district, which gave Obama 79% in 2012, could also hypothetically make Rep. Scott Rigell’s (R, VA-2) already swingy district more Democratic. It remains unclear what will happen, though. The Virginia Republican congressional delegation appealed to the Supreme Court, so the ruling might not stand, and it’s also possible that Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and the Republican-controlled state legislature might agree to a new map that makes only minimal changes, which would not affect Forbes or Rigell much. Stay tuned.

Roll Call noted:

A redraw has the potential to drastically change the state’s partisan makeup in the congressional delegation. Virginia is a battleground statewide, but Republicans currently hold eight of the state’s 11 House seats.

Stay tuned, indeed.

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