Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks GOP, Dem 2016 presidential contenders

By Lynn R. Mitchell

If it’s Thursday, it’s time for Sabato’s Crystal Ball and time for this political junkie to get a needed fix.

The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato’s weekly report is out and, in the list of Republican 2016 presidential contenders, Jeb Bush still tops the Top Tier. In this issue, Dr. Sabato also covers the Democratic presidential field.

Sabato’s “First Tier: The Leading Contenders” consists of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. All have proven leadership and solid conservative credentials but history has shown voters usually go for candidates who have been governors which bodes well for Bush and Walker. Not as much so for U.S. senators which is something that could affect Rubio, not to mention that his presence in the Senate is badly needed at this time.

Larry Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball … national changes, updates, and Gillespie

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball have new election predictions this morning with some changes (see A Tale of Two Elections: New 2014 Senate and House Ratings).

Larry Sabato’s latest on 2014 elections

By Lynn R. Mitchell

University of Virginia political professor Dr. Larry Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball is out with his latest reading of the political tea leaves (see House 2014: Generic Movement, Specific Standstill: Republican gains in national polls don’t necessarily mean large House seat addition).

Sabato warns, “The national numbers indicate that Republicans should be on the verge of big House gains. But a district-by-district analysis suggests a different story.” He then number-crunches for Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races across the nation.

Larry Sabato puts Jeb Bush at top of 2016 GOP field

By Lynn R. Mitchell

The Crystal Ball is out with its latest political observations but what particularly caught my attention was the 2016 Republican presidential field (see 2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top).

Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley at the U.Va. Center for Politics have weighed in with their latest thoughts as Republicans scramble to find a top-runner even as Democrats seemingly settle on Hillary Clinton as their 2016 nominee.

Mississippi … sounds like what Brat did in Virginia

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Thad Cochran’s win in Mississippi Tuesday sounds like Dave Brat’s win in Virginia … courting Democrats and others:

There is no Republican primary in Mississippi.

That’s because state law allows any Democrat who didn’t vote in the Democratic primary (which means most Democrats) to vote in the Republican primary…and they did. In fact, Sen. Thad Cochran vigorously pursued Democrat votes, and if anecdotal turnout figures are correct, he got them in numbers adequate to squelch the insurgent campaign of state Sen. McDaniel.

A big difference in the reactions of the two who lost, however. While Majority Leader Eric Cantor was gracious in losing and threw his support behind Brat, Chris McDaniel is refusing to concede and has threatened a recount. Politico wrote (see Defiant Chris McDaniel declines to concede in speech to reporters):

Sabato Crystal Ball: ‘The House majority leader’s shocking loss is more an outlier than a harbinger’

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Majority Leader Eric Cantor was dealt a surprising defeat Tuesday. The rise of the tea party? The fall of establishment?

No, say Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at the Crystal Ball, headquarters of Dr. Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia’s resident politico (see Cantor’s Fall: The House majority leader’s shocking loss is more an outlier than a harbinger):