Not so fast on counting Jeb Bush out of 2016 – UPDATE: Jeb endorsed by Rubio’s former chief-of staff, newspaper doubles down

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Not so fast on the calls for Governor Jeb Bush to step aside for 2016. He’s not going anywhere especially since many of those calls came after the former Florida governor had a whopping four minutes and fifty-eight seconds to present his case to voters during a dysfunctional, chaotic CNBC two-hour event that they tried to bill as a debate.

None of the candidates had much time to express anything serious; Governor Bush had the least:

Debate clock:
Rubio: 8:44
Fiorina: 8:37
Kasich: 8:06
Trump: 7:44
Cruz: 6:52
Christie: 6:30
Huckabee: 5:47
Carson: 5:28
Paul: 5:03
Bush: 4:56

One call for Jeb to drop out came from a young fellow blogger who bemoaned the fact that Jeb talked about “boring policy positions.” Interesting … because that’s what Washington is all about. Maybe that’s why the young blogger’s chosen candidate, Marco Rubio, doesn’t like being in the U.S. Senate. Too boring. After all, understanding policy discussions is perhaps what separates the adults from the children in D.C.

For a little perspective, Jeb’s brother faced similar doubts sixteen years ago, and then lost Iowa and New Hampshire. We all know how that turned out.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks GOP, Dem 2016 presidential contenders

By Lynn R. Mitchell

If it’s Thursday, it’s time for Sabato’s Crystal Ball and time for this political junkie to get a needed fix.

The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato’s weekly report is out and, in the list of Republican 2016 presidential contenders, Jeb Bush still tops the Top Tier. In this issue, Dr. Sabato also covers the Democratic presidential field.

Sabato’s “First Tier: The Leading Contenders” consists of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. All have proven leadership and solid conservative credentials but history has shown voters usually go for candidates who have been governors which bodes well for Bush and Walker. Not as much so for U.S. senators which is something that could affect Rubio, not to mention that his presence in the Senate is badly needed at this time.

Larry Sabato’s revised 2016 presidential field … Jeb moves to top

By Lynn R. Mitchell

The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has come out with the latest Crystal Ball analysis of the 2016 presidential lineup for Republicans and, not surprisingly, it centers mostly around the only candidate to (almost) announce so far, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (who, technically, is surveying the landscape — political code for “he’s running”).

Sabato, long-time director of the U.Va. Center for Politics, noted the turtle mix-up that occurred over the holidays with Jeb Bush’s announcement which shot him to the top of the list, although he did not have far to go because he had been near the top of the list for a while.

Washington Post: Three Pinocchios to Mark Warner campaign for deceiving ad

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Three Pinocchios from the Washington Post for the latest Mark Warner campaign ad for its “slimy sleight of hand” playing loose with the facts. Ouch.

But even when faced with the facts, Mark Warner’s campaign stands by their deceiving television ad against Republican candidate Ed Gillespie and thumbs its nose at the Washington Post’s Fact Checker.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s latest forecast for 2014

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Senate Forecast: Cloudy with a Good Chance of Republican Majority. That’s the latest this morning from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball as the final days tick down to Election 2014.

Virginia is in the “Likely Democrat” column but that remains to be seen. In these final days of the campaign, Ed Gillespie has successfully chiseled away at Senator Mark Warner’s Teflon veneer to expose Warner’s 97 percent voting record with President Barack Obama as well as his lack of getting much done in the senate the past six years.

On Wednesday the Washington Post’s Fact Checker gave Warner Three Pinocchios for a startlingly inaccurate TV ad, picking it apart and exposing the lies, only to have the Warner campaign state that they stand with the ad.

Meanwhile, other senate candidates are also battling it out right down to the finish line. The Crystal Ball covers each one, adding fodder for political junkies following Election 2014.

Gillespie’s latest round of ads to hit airwaves Saturday – updated

Ed Gillespie (Photo by Lynn R. Mitchell)

By Lynn R. Mitchell

While liberals have tried to make hay with Ed Gillespie’s temporary absence from the airwaves, it’s actually the calm before the storm as the Gillespie campaign gears up for a Saturday launch that may be highlighting a major pivot in messaging. The timing is perfect as Gillespie surges, riding the Republican wave that is building across the country.

Reading the VPAP news clips this morning, it was clear media types were pouncing on Gillespie. “Ed Gillesipe goes dark on television in Virginia senate race,” screamed the Washington Post while the New York Times blared, “Gillespie to leave airtime in Virginia to others” and the AP piled on with, “GOP’s Gillespie ditches ads in senate race in Va.”

The Richmond Times-Dispatch was the only one to honestly report that Gillespie was “temporarily ditching ads.”

When long-time political pundit Larry Sabato writes that Puckettgate is “not a good development for Mark Warner,” it’s serious. Get ready for the final push and hang on … Gillespie is in a full-out sprint to the finish line.

UPDATE: The new ad was out by mid-day Friday and will hit the airwaves Saturday (see Presview: Ed Gillespie’s new TV ad … “Changed”).

Sabato: ‘This is not a good development for Mark Warner’

By Lynn R. Mitchell

“This is not a good development for Mark Warner.” — Dr. Larry Sabato, political pundit, 10/15/2014

Since Monday night’s debate between Mark Warner and Ed Gillespie that the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin called Warner’s debate from hell and noting that Gillespie had drawn blood, Warner has ducked from reporters and is keeping a low profile while Puckettgate continues to grow.

Larry Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball … national changes, updates, and Gillespie

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball have new election predictions this morning with some changes (see A Tale of Two Elections: New 2014 Senate and House Ratings).

Larry Sabato’s latest on 2014 elections

By Lynn R. Mitchell

University of Virginia political professor Dr. Larry Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball is out with his latest reading of the political tea leaves (see House 2014: Generic Movement, Specific Standstill: Republican gains in national polls don’t necessarily mean large House seat addition).

Sabato warns, “The national numbers indicate that Republicans should be on the verge of big House gains. But a district-by-district analysis suggests a different story.” He then number-crunches for Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races across the nation.

Larry Sabato puts Jeb Bush at top of 2016 GOP field

By Lynn R. Mitchell

The Crystal Ball is out with its latest political observations but what particularly caught my attention was the 2016 Republican presidential field (see 2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top).

Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley at the U.Va. Center for Politics have weighed in with their latest thoughts as Republicans scramble to find a top-runner even as Democrats seemingly settle on Hillary Clinton as their 2016 nominee.

Larry Sabato’s ‘Crystal Ball’ partners with Politico

By Lynn R. Mitchell

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and political science professor Dr. Larry Sabato announced on Thursday an important partnership (see Politico, Crystal Ball announce new partnership):

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Politico are pleased to announce an exclusive media partnership to offer readers interactive ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Senate, House, and gubernatorial races.

The new feature on Politico’s website shows which way the Center believes a race is leaning each week as well as the logic behind changes in ratings.

“Partnering with Politico is an exciting next step for the Crystal Ball, and we look forward to contributing our race ratings and analysis to one of the top political news outlets in the country,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

 

Mississippi … sounds like what Brat did in Virginia

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Thad Cochran’s win in Mississippi Tuesday sounds like Dave Brat’s win in Virginia … courting Democrats and others:

There is no Republican primary in Mississippi.

That’s because state law allows any Democrat who didn’t vote in the Democratic primary (which means most Democrats) to vote in the Republican primary…and they did. In fact, Sen. Thad Cochran vigorously pursued Democrat votes, and if anecdotal turnout figures are correct, he got them in numbers adequate to squelch the insurgent campaign of state Sen. McDaniel.

A big difference in the reactions of the two who lost, however. While Majority Leader Eric Cantor was gracious in losing and threw his support behind Brat, Chris McDaniel is refusing to concede and has threatened a recount. Politico wrote (see Defiant Chris McDaniel declines to concede in speech to reporters):

Sabato Crystal Ball: ‘The House majority leader’s shocking loss is more an outlier than a harbinger’

By Lynn R. Mitchell

Majority Leader Eric Cantor was dealt a surprising defeat Tuesday. The rise of the tea party? The fall of establishment?

No, say Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at the Crystal Ball, headquarters of Dr. Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia’s resident politico (see Cantor’s Fall: The House majority leader’s shocking loss is more an outlier than a harbinger):